Ray on CNBC India -May & June 08
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- ray says:
June 10th, 2008 at 9:18 am e Announcement:Try www.moneycontrol.com
Ray Barros, CEO of Ray Barros Trading Group said that a close below 4,453 would indicate start of the bear market. He feels that India’s chart is not as bad as China’s, which is in a bear market. According to him, there is a need to break 4,453 – 5,545 range on the upside for reversal. If we close above 4,590, Nifty may bounce back to 5,000 levels, he said. Crude is forming a temporary top, it will not see USD 150-200 levels soon, Barros said. US stock market is likely to enter a bear phase in next few months, Dow’s close below 11,635 would signal a bear market, he added. Excerpts from CNBC-TV18’s exclusive interview with Ray Barros:
Q: Crucial question on the Nifty and where you see that headed?
A: Let’s have a look at some critical levels. To me, Nifty had this low coming at 4,453. The Nifty then rallied back up to 5,545 – they are the two sides of the equations. If we get a close below 4,453, that would be a preliminary indication that the bear market has started. A subsequent close below 4,300 will confirm that in the Nifty the bear market has started.
Q: We will come back to, but China was the market that we were talking about. That’s down 6% this morning and India and China have been falling hand in hand throughout 2008. How is that looking?
A: The Chinese market is looking pretty awful. Last year I had said that it would drop 50% but I didn’t expect it to drop 50% in quite a short time that it occurred. Market then rallied about 33% retracement level and it’s on the way now to challenging those lows. I would like to be a bit positive here; I would like to see those lows hold. If they can hold then we will form a trading range between the reaction high and the current low. If that level breaks we do not have much support and I would even begin to hazard a guess where the bottom might be found.
Q: When you look at the entire Asian pack, do India and China look like among the weaker charts because they have been the under performers in 2008? A: India’s chart doesn’t look as bad as the Chinese. The Chinese are clearly in a bear market, the Indian one still has some chance. If you look at the Sensex, we have the low coming in at 14,677 levels and we still haven’t closed below that low. If Sensex can rally from here, it might continue to form this trading range between 17,735. So to me the Indian market is not quite as weak as China. The China market is clearly in the bearish market and is struggling to find a base. For the Indian market, the bear market hasn’t officially started.
Q: We made a new low for the year yesterday, if you do play for some kind of strength or a bounce back on these markets, how high do you think it could go? A: I think a closing low is far more important. Yesterday Nifty made a low below 4,453 but then closed well above it. And if Nifty can have a close above 4,590, then it is good to run to 5,003. If it clears that level, then investors are good to run to 5,545. And if we can clear that and close above 5,760 then investors may have a run to 6,300.
I am overall bearish on world stock markets. I think any run in the Nifty will be contained by the 5,545 area. I am just not convinced that the Indian market is ready to break. We would need to see a close below 4,453 and then a close below 4,300 and that to me would confirm that the bear market has started in the Indian stock market.
More to come
Ana aka IDkit
June 10, 2008:
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